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post #1 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 03:25 PM Thread Starter
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Crime and Firearm Statistics (US vs England & Australia)

I recently did some research on crime in the US vs crime in England and Australia to dispel the myth that the US is such a dangerous, violent country due to the 2nd Amendment. Yes, the US has more gun crimes than either of those two countries, but lets look at the big picture here. I will go based on percentages, not total numbers, since the population of the US is roughly 314 million, compared to 53 million in England and 23 million.

Lets get started:

Australia has 100% more assault victims than the US (2.4% vs 1.2%)
Australia has 150% more rape victims than the US (1% vs 0.4%)
Australia has 43% more total crime victims than the US (30.1% vs 21.1%)

England has 133% more assault victims than the US (2.8% to 1.2%)
England has 125% more rape victims than the US (.9% to 0.4%)
England has 25% more total crime victims than the US (26.4% to 21.1%)

NationMaster - Crime stats: Australia vs United States
NationMaster - Crime stats: United Kingdom vs United States

Now let us do the math of how much more total crime there would be in the United States if crime were increased to the rates of Australia (assuming 314 million US population):
5,104,000 more assaults
1,884,000 more rape victims
28,260,000 more total crime victims

I found those numbers quite shocking, and revealed that Australia and the UK are not safer than the United States a a whole.

Next, I researched gun deaths. People like to throw around the statistic that 30,000+ people are killed by guns each year. According to the CDC:
"Firearm—In 2010, 31,672 persons died from firearm injuries in
the United States (Tables 18 and 19), accounting for 17.5% of all injury
deaths in that year. The two major component causes of all firearm
injury deaths in 2010 were suicide (61.2%) and homicide (35.0%)"
The majority of gun deaths are suicides, which should not be included in gun violence statistics. The number of gun homicides in 2010 would be 11,085.

As for all of the people vilifying "assault weapons", in 2011 there were 8583 total murder victims from firearms. 6,220 (~72%) were handguns, and only 323 (~4%) were rifles, forget "assault rifles". In the same year, an American was 524% more likely to be killed by a knife then by a rifle, 153% more likely to be killed by blunt objects then by a rifle, and 225% more likely to be killed by hands or feet then by a rifle.

Here are more of the sources:
FBI ? Expanded Homicide Data Table 8
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf

---------- Post added at 03:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:16 PM ----------

And just to put it out there, I'm not a conservative. Nor am I a liberal.


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post #2 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 03:40 PM
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Good on you for examining and analysing and figuring out what's really happening. It may not mean much from a random stranger on the internet, but it's nice to see someone actually put some effort into coming to a conclusion rather than just coming up with a knee-jerk reaction to a touchy subject.

Out of curiosity, have you looked into how crime statistics are gathered in these other countries or even here in the US, to see if the measures are accurately comparable? For instance, whether rape statistics are skewed higher or lower depending on whether male rape is reported?

As far as the actual firearm crime information, is there information regarding crimes such as larceny that escalate to homicide because of the presence of a firearm? I am left wondering whether the incidence of violence during otherwise non-violent crimes is a significant statistic. One last thing I'm interested in, in case the information is available to you is the incidence of firearm injuries use during domestic disputes between the different countries. I've always heard that rather than strangers shooting each other, that one is far more likely to be shot by someone you know (rape is similar in this respect), but I've never actually found any tables that examined that correlation.



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post #3 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 04:03 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by nileppezdel77! View Post
Good on you for examining and analysing and figuring out what's really happening. It may not mean much from a random stranger on the internet, but it's nice to see someone actually put some effort into coming to a conclusion rather than just coming up with a knee-jerk reaction to a touchy subject.

Out of curiosity, have you looked into how crime statistics are gathered in these other countries or even here in the US, to see if the measures are accurately comparable? For instance, whether rape statistics are skewed higher or lower depending on whether male rape is reported?

As far as the actual firearm crime information, is there information regarding crimes such as larceny that escalate to homicide because of the presence of a firearm? I am left wondering whether the incidence of violence during otherwise non-violent crimes is a significant statistic. One last thing I'm interested in, in case the information is available to you is the incidence of firearm injuries use during domestic disputes between the different countries. I've always heard that rather than strangers shooting each other, that one is far more likely to be shot by someone you know (rape is similar in this respect), but I've never actually found any tables that examined that correlation.
I do not know that much, only that the sources I referenced are reliable.

This is what I could find:
"More than five times as many women were murdered by an intimate acquaintance (605) than by a stranger (113) in the year 2000. Additionally, while firearm homicides involving male victims were mostly intra-gender, 95 percent of female firearm homicide victims were murdered by a male"

"Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that from 1993 to 1998, women were victims of violent crimes by their intimate partners an average of more than 935,000 times a year. During this period, intimate-partner violence comprised 22 percent of all violent crimes against women... firearms are used in a relatively small percentage of domestic violence incidents..."

"An analysis of female domestic homicides (a woman murdered by a spouse, intimate acquaintance, or close relative) showed that prior domestic violence in the household made a woman 14.6 times more likely... to be the victim of such a homicide."

---------- Post added at 03:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:51 PM ----------

The statistic that I would like to know is how many crimes (assault, robbery, rape, homicide, etc) are prevented by law abiding citizens using firearms.

I would assume that this is a statistically significant number, due to how much less crime there is (% wise) in the US than in the UK and Australia, and how much loser American firearm laws are.

---------- Post added at 04:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:53 PM ----------

Additionally:
"The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.29

The average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by a civilian is 2.33"

The author has a decent amount of analysis and statistics to support this claim, and it makes sense when you think about it. The average police response time is approximately 10 minutes (not knocking police officers, they can only be in so many places at one time). This leaves a mass murderer with 10 minutes to shoot people before law enforcement arrives on the scene to put him down. The reason why shooters so often pick gun free zones is that they know that no one has a gun to fight back; the people are defenseless until police arrive

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post #4 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 06:23 PM
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post #5 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 06:40 PM Thread Starter
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Good post! reps
Thanks!

---------- Post added at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:35 PM ----------

I will admit that the total homicide rate is lower than Australia than it is in the US (I'm going to report all findings, not just those that support my argument).

Again, assuming a 314 million US population, reducing homicide rates to that of the rate in Australia would result in 10,676 less homicides (which wouldn't hold up in reality, but I won't bother to get into that). While that sounds like a solid argument for gun control, when you do the math, it reveals that for every homicide that would be prevented in this hypothetical situation there would be:
176 more rapes
478 more assaults
2647 more total crimes

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post #6 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 06:40 PM
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The only problem I see with your post, is you actually used real statistics and logic. Libs only deal in feelings and thoughts so all your work will not help to change any of their minds. Other than that Great post.


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post #7 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 08:56 PM Thread Starter
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The only problem I see with your post, is you actually used real statistics and logic. Libs only deal in feelings and thoughts so all your work will not help to change any of their minds. Other than that Great post.
Tell me something I don't know. I posted all of this on a Libertarian Facebook page, and some liberal, whose parents didn't have any children that lived, said, in response to this exact information, "I guess I would rather have these kind of assaults than the possibility of TWENTY 5-6 years killed in less than 7 minutes!!". He also thinks that I am a racist for criticizing Obama (I criticize Bush plenty). That whole "!!" thing really bothers me for some reason; it makes me think of someone just yelling until they get their way.

If you didn't figure it out yet, I'm a libertarian.

---------- Post added at 06:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:47 PM ----------

Here is a quote that no liberal I've encountered has been able to respond to:
“False is the idea of utility that sacrifices a thousand real advantages for one imaginary or trifling inconvenience; that would take fire from men because it burns, and water because one may drown in it; that has no remedy for evils, except destruction. The laws that forbid the carrying of arms are laws of such a nature. They disarm those only who are neither inclined nor determined to commit crimes. Can it be supposed that those who have the courage to violate the most sacred laws of humanity, the most important of the code, will respect the less important and arbitrary ones, which can be violated with ease and impunity, and which, if strictly obeyed, would put an end to personal liberty-so dear to men, so dear to the enlightened legislator-and subject innocent persons to all the vexations that the quality alone ought to suffer? Such laws make things worse for the assaulted and better for the assailants; they serve rather to encourage than to prevent homicides, for an unarmed man may be attacked with greater confidence than an armed man." — Thomas Jefferson, 1764 (quoting 18th century criminologist Cesare Beccaria in “On Crimes and Punishment”)

Here is another great quote that is frighteningly relevant today:
"[W]hen the resolution of enslaving America was formed in Great Britain, the British Parliament was advised by an artful man, who was governor of Pennsylvania, to disarm the people; that it was the best and most effectual way to enslave them; but that they should not do it openly, but weaken them, and let them sink gradually…”
-George Mason (Virginia’s U.S. Constitution ratification convention in 1788)

---------- Post added at 06:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:51 PM ----------

Australia also has a higher suicide rate than the US per 100,000 people (7% more for ages 15-24 and 22% more for ages 25-34). This proves, beyond a doubt, that people will still find a way to kill themselves in the absence of guns, which are so hard to come by in Australia.

---------- Post added at 08:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:58 PM ----------

"A breakdown... shows that 83% of those murdered in Chicago last year had criminal records. In Philly, it’s 75%. In Milwaukee it’s 77% percent. In New Orleans, it’s 64%. In Baltimore, it’s 91%. Many were felons who had served time. And as many as 80% of the homicides were gang related."

Criminals are breaking the law and killing each other. What a surprise, people who have proven that they do not obey laws are not obeying laws. I'm shocked.

---------- Post added at 08:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:47 PM ----------

""The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." -Winston Churchill

This has been made abundantly clear to me when talking to many liberals and conservatives who are completely blind to reason and will support anyone in their party and whatever their news station of choice says.

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post #8 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 09:13 PM
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Thanks!

---------- Post added at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:35 PM ----------

I will admit that the total homicide rate is lower than Australia than it is in the US (I'm going to report all findings, not just those that support my argument).

Again, assuming a 314 million US population, reducing homicide rates to that of the rate in Australia would result in 10,676 less homicides (which wouldn't hold up in reality, but I won't bother to get into that). While that sounds like a solid argument for gun control, when you do the math, it reveals that for every homicide that would be prevented in this hypothetical situation there would be:
176 more rapes
478 more assaults
2647 more total crimes
The counter argument to this is that less people are dying... The divide seems to come when discussing which is ultimately better for society, less deaths and more violent crime or less violent crime and more deaths. Even stating it that way makes it sound like an anti-gun supported question. Being a Libertarian, I think we should always err on the side of more freedom and spend more time educating people on their part of the social contract...



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post #9 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 09:33 PM Thread Starter
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The counter argument to this is that less people are dying... The divide seems to come when discussing which is ultimately better for society, less deaths and more violent crime or less violent crime and more deaths. Even stating it that way makes it sound like an anti-gun supported question. Being a Libertarian, I think we should always err on the side of more freedom and spend more time educating people on their part of the social contract...
What sounds worse?

1 death

or

176 rapes &
478 assaults &
2647 total crimes

Does quality of life mean nothing?

If we are speaking purely in terms of what is "ultimately better for society", wouldn't someone who sacrificed their life to prevent 176 rapes, 478 assaults, and 2647 total crimes be considered a hero? If we are talking about the greater good, which I do not enjoy doing, wouldn't the sacrifice of one life that prevents thousands of crimes and hundreds of rapes be for the greater good?

---------- Post added at 09:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 PM ----------

I will admit that the following is a completely disturbing visualization of my above post, but which would a society be more likely to do "for the greater good":

a.) kill 1 person to somehow prevent 176 rapes, 478 assaults, and 2647 total crimes

or

b.) rape 176 people, assault 478 people, and commit 2647 crimes to somehow save one life

(also take into account that there is a good chance, up to 91% in some areas, that the person who would be killed has a criminal record.

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post #10 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by 01Lightning View Post
[/COLOR]I will admit that the following is a completely disturbing visualization of my above post, but which would a society be more likely to do "for the greater good":

a.) kill 1 person to somehow prevent 176 rapes, 478 assaults, and 2647 total crimes

or

b.) rape 176 people, assault 478 people, and commit 2647 crimes to somehow save one life

(also take into account that there is a good chance, up to 91% in some areas, that the person who would be killed has a criminal record.
You've possibly conflated disparate ideas here though: are we certain that it is the possible presence of a firearm that might be used in self-defense that *prevents* these crimes in America? Perhaps it's something else entirely and we shouldn't expect those numbers to rise as a result of any gun regulations. Maybe our police force or educational system or the fear of our draconian prison systems that do it (doubtful, honestly, but it's likely some combination of factors true to our particular culture, not merely our gun rights).



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post #11 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 11:06 PM Thread Starter
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You've possibly conflated disparate ideas here though: are we certain that it is the possible presence of a firearm that might be used in self-defense that *prevents* these crimes in America? Perhaps it's something else entirely and we shouldn't expect those numbers to rise as a result of any gun regulations. Maybe our police force or educational system or the fear of our draconian prison systems that do it (doubtful, honestly, but it's likely some combination of factors true to our particular culture, not merely our gun rights).
I know. I primarily did this research and calculations to show that Australia ans the UK, the liberals poster countries for gun control, are in fact more dangerous than the US. Obviosly there are numerous factors in play here, not just gun control. I just needed some "ammo" against liberals saying how safe countries are without guns.

---------- Post added at 11:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:00 PM ----------

I can, however, say with almost absolute certainty, that if guns were outlawed in America that there would be an immediate surge in crimes (robbery, rape, car theft, etc) due to criminals knowing that the law abiding populus is unarmed. A criminal who would kill and steal would surely not turn in their guns. We know how well gun free zones work...

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post #12 of 33 Old January 19th, 2014, 11:29 PM
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Good work Bro!

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I also found this graph quite interesting. After a cursory glance, the numbers seem to be pretty accurate (it should be per 100,000 people)

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post #14 of 33 Old January 20th, 2014, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by mjpjr45 View Post
The only problem I see with your post, is you actually used real statistics and logic. Libs only deal in feelings and thoughts so all your work will not help to change any of their minds. Other than that Great post.
I love sweeping generalizations!
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I love sweeping generalizations!
What I love most is that the opposite is usually what happens. Conservatives like to make there decisions on emotion rather than actual data to back up their claims. A lot of what I see on here from most conservatives is that this is wrong and that is wrong yet I hardly ever see them back it up with any real, non-partisan data.

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post #16 of 33 Old January 20th, 2014, 11:15 AM
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People in those countries do not have the same rights to defense of self or property. If you do, and the crook gets hurt or killed, you go to jail.

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post #17 of 33 Old January 20th, 2014, 11:18 AM Thread Starter
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People in those countries do not have the same rights to defense of self or property. If you do, and the crook gets hurt or killed, you go to jail.
I did not know that.

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What I love most is that the opposite is usually what happens. Conservatives like to make there decisions on emotion rather than actual data to back up their claims. A lot of what I see on here from most conservatives is that this is wrong and that is wrong yet I hardly ever see them back it up with any real, non-partisan data.

John
Really? The sweeping gun control in Colorado, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, and California are all due to fact checked data, non partisan participation, and no knee jerk, emotion based decisions that "we have to do something!" to combat gun related crime?

Not saying that both sides don't have knee jerk reactions, but saying that sweeping changes based on knee jerk reactions vs. trying to keep things the same are usually in the Liberal playbook.

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Really? The sweeping gun control in Colorado, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, and California are all due to fact checked data, non partisan participation, and no knee jerk, emotion based decisions that "we have to do something!" to combat gun related crime?

Not saying that both sides don't have knee jerk reactions, but saying that sweeping changes based on knee jerk reactions vs. trying to keep things the same are usually in the Liberal playbook.
On gun control I will support your assessment 100% but on a lot of other issues I see conservatives make inflated claims to prop up an argument that aren't even in the realm of believability. That's not to say that liberals don't do it too but the totally preposterous claims I see come out of the conservative media sometimes is astonishing.

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post #20 of 33 Old January 20th, 2014, 01:10 PM Thread Starter
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On gun control I will support your assessment 100% but on a lot of other issues I see conservatives make inflated claims to prop up an argument that aren't even in the realm of believability. That's not to say that liberals don't do it too but the totally preposterous claims I see come out of the conservative media sometimes is astonishing.

John
Both parties are guilty of this, but it seems that, as a whole, liberals base more of their beliefs on emotions and feelings (examples: gun control, minimum wage), while conservatives base their beliefs more on morals (examples: gay marriage, drugs). Neither one is correct.

---------- Post added at 01:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 PM ----------

Both parties are equally guilty of "making inflated claims to prop up an argument that aren't even in the realm of believably."

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