March to the Nomination - Page 3 - Forums at Modded Mustangs
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post #41 of 111 Old March 6th, 2016, 01:39 PM
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Thanks for putting this thread up and keeping it updated, Eagle. I was actually looking for delegate numbers on msn news this morning trying to find it out for everyone. But your thread is more concise and full of all info in one stop than anything else I've found online.
MSN? Commie.....just kidding

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post #42 of 111 Old March 6th, 2016, 05:56 PM
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i think we all expected it to come down to a race between clinton and trump :/

with that being said, though it saddens me to say, i'm so certain that clinton would win, that if it were legal, i'd take out a huge home equity loan, take it to a bookkeeper, throw every penny on her, then use the profit to get a better education, so i can learn how to type sentences without so many commas
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post #43 of 111 Old March 7th, 2016, 08:41 AM Thread Starter
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Marco Rubio sweeps Puerto Rico getting 73.6% of the vote. Puerto is a US territory and Republicans allow it to vote in the primary. They do not vote in the general election. The island is a majority-take-all state so Rubio won all 23 delegates. Mathematically it is unlikely that Rubio can win the nomination if thing continue the way they are. He is betting a lot on his home state of Florida's 99 winner-take-all delegates. He and Cruz are also looking ahead. Trump does well in open primaries but not so well in closed ones and upcoming closed primaries outnumber open ones by an almost 3 to 1 margin (22 closed and 8 open).

Republicans are starting to re-think the idea of open primaries. Trump is not a conservative and he is bringing a lot of non-conservatives to the polls in open primaries. Of the seven closed primaries Trump has lost five but he has won most of the open primaries. To date open primaries have outnumbered closed ones. There were 12 open and 8 closed. Trump won 9 of the 12.

In the end its not the number of states you win that count. Some states are larger than others. Its the delegate count that matters and there are a lot of closed primary majority-take-all and winner-take-all states coming up.

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post #44 of 111 Old March 7th, 2016, 11:43 AM
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Marco Rubio sweeps Puerto Rico getting 73.6% of the vote. Puerto is a US territory and Republicans allow it to vote in the primary. They do not vote in the general election. The island is a majority-take-all state so Rubio won all 23 delegates. ...
Interesting, I did not know that.
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post #45 of 111 Old March 7th, 2016, 10:41 PM Thread Starter
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I heard an interesting commentary tonight so I thought I'd play along. They were talking about how many delegates were needed to clinch the nomination. After all we still have around 2/3 of the race still to go. But my math differs from what the commenters said. He is my math.

Republicans:
Trump has 384 and needs 1,237. He needs 853 more delegates. There are 1,586 delegates left. He needs to win 54% of the remaining delegates. He has never won a majority in any state. He is actually averaging around 35-40%. Does that make it impossible for him to win. No. Winner-take-majority and winner-take-all states can give him 54% of the delegates without getting 54% of the vote.

Cruz has 300 delegates. He needs 1.237 to win so that means he needs 937 delegates or 61% of the remaining delegates. He has never won a state with more that 48% of the vote but the winner-take-majority and winner-take-all states might make a difference.

Democrats:
Clinton has 1,130 delegates (more than a third are super-delegates). She needs 2,382 to win so she needs 1,252 to win. There are 3,134 delegates remaining. She has to win 40% to win the nomination. She has so far averaged above 50% of the state delegates and since all Democratic primaries are proportional Sanders' odds are not good.

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post #46 of 111 Old March 8th, 2016, 03:24 PM
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i think we all expected it to come down to a race between clinton and trump :/

with that being said, though it saddens me to say, i'm so certain that clinton would win, that if it were legal, i'd take out a huge home equity loan, take it to a bookkeeper, throw every penny on her, then use the profit to get a better education, so i can learn how to type sentences without so many commas
I also think Trump getting the nomination would secure victory for Clinton.

Maybe this was their plan all along because they wanted Clinton from the get go. And they needed to get someone in there she could easily beat. Hillary is probably donating to his campaign lol.
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post #47 of 111 Old March 8th, 2016, 03:54 PM
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I also think Trump getting the nomination would secure victory for Clinton.

Maybe this was their plan all along because they wanted Clinton from the get go. And they needed to get someone in there she could easily beat. Hillary is probably donating to his campaign lol.
It is the plan. I've been saying it all along. Trump is a friend of the Clintons.

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post #48 of 111 Old March 9th, 2016, 07:36 AM Thread Starter
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Trump's domination of open primaries and caucuses continues having won in Michigan and Mississippi (both are open). Cruz won Idaho (a closed primary). Michigan is a majority-take-all state but none of the candidates won a majority so the delegates were assigned proportionately. Rubio failed to get the minimum for delegates. Mississippi and Idaho delegates are mostly proportional. Rubio and Kasich both failed to get the minimum for delegates in both states. Trump is projected to win Hawaii where caucus attendees can either register Republican or sign in at the door.

Clinton won Mississippi and Sanders won Michigan but Clinton won more delegates extending her lead.

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post #49 of 111 Old March 10th, 2016, 01:07 AM
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I also think Trump getting the nomination would secure victory for Clinton.

Maybe this was their plan all along because they wanted Clinton from the get go. And they needed to get someone in there she could easily beat. Hillary is probably donating to his campaign lol.
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It is the plan. I've been saying it all along. Trump is a friend of the Clintons.
While that may have been the plan I have a feeling that plan has changed now that the Donald is in the lead. Perhaps the plan was to muddle the republican field but with Trump in front I'm sure he's switching gears and going for it full force.

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post #50 of 111 Old March 10th, 2016, 02:08 PM
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While that may have been the plan I have a feeling that plan has changed now that the Donald is in the lead. Perhaps the plan was to muddle the republican field but with Trump in front I'm sure he's switching gears and going for it full force.

John
Perhaps, but in a Trump Vs Clinton situation, I see Clinton winning hands down.

A lot of the caucuses Trump wins are open, meaning anyone can vote for anyone. I have zero doubt his numbers are being inflated because Hillary has the nomination in the bag. She's walking the walk and talking the talk, but she's got the nomination down.

She won't get arrested, and even if she gets found guilty, Obama will pardon her because that's just how it's been done, and he'll do it. So in a Trump vs. Clinton field, it's Clinton all day long, and that is by design.

Clinton vs. Cruz or Rubio will be tighter, but I'm willing to bet it'd go to the Republican in that case.

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post #51 of 111 Old March 10th, 2016, 03:14 PM
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Perhaps, but in a Trump Vs Clinton situation, I see Clinton winning hands down.

A lot of the caucuses Trump wins are open, meaning anyone can vote for anyone. I have zero doubt his numbers are being inflated because Hillary has the nomination in the bag. She's walking the walk and talking the talk, but she's got the nomination down.

She won't get arrested, and even if she gets found guilty, Obama will pardon her because that's just how it's been done, and he'll do it. So in a Trump vs. Clinton field, it's Clinton all day long, and that is by design.

Clinton vs. Cruz or Rubio will be tighter, but I'm willing to bet it'd go to the Republican in that case.
I agree that the Clinton machine is in full force and the DNC is guilty of pre-electing HRC. As far as her being indicted I'm not sure the FBI or anyone is going to actually come up with something that can be used. Certainly the evidence is damning but usable, indictable evidence I'm not so sure othewise she would have been brought up on charges long ago so no need for a BHO pardon.

Clinton has around half the delegates she needs for the nomination but 2/3 are superdelegates that can change their vote come convention time. If Sanders can win Ohio and Florida along with some other states he just may have enough momentum going into the convention to get a good amount to switch to his side. Even then though the DNC has already chosen Hillary as the standard bearer, I can see why you feel the way you do but, then again, no one thought that Trump or Sanders had a chance either.

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post #52 of 111 Old March 14th, 2016, 10:36 AM Thread Starter
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I don't know what's going on with this thread. I have been updating the first post to keep it current but it keeps loosing the edits reverting back to its original.

---------- Post added at 09:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 AM ----------

But when I go into edit it shows the updated information. I don't have to type anything. All I have do do is save. This doesn't make any sense.
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Republicans
To win the nomination candidates must win 1,237 of 2,472 delegates. There are 168 super-delegates (party insiders) but Republican super-delegates are bound by state election results.
https://www.google.com/search?q=How+...full/m.09c7w0/

Delegates won so far: Trump 446, Cruz 347, Rubio 151, and Kasich 54. Total delegates assigned 1013 (41.0%).
Carson with 8, Bush with 3 and Paul, Huckabee and Fiorina with 1 each have quit.
Next:
...March 10th Virgin Islands with 9 delegates
...March 12th District of Columbia, Guam and Wyoming with a total of 37 delegates
...March 15th Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Northern Marianas with a total of 367 delegates.

Democrats
To win the nomination candidates must win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates. There are no winner take all states. All delegates are assigned proportionally. There are 712 super-delegates (party insiders) who may vote any way they wish. Of the 712 super-delegates 364 have already pledged to vote for Clinton, 8 have pledged to vote for Sanders and 2 have pledged to vote for O'Malley. The number in parenthesis includes super-delegates.
https://www.google.com/search?q=How+...hort/m.09c7w0/

Delegates won so far: Clinton 1221 and Sanders 571. Total delegates assigned or pledged 1792 (37.6%)
Next:
...March 12th Northern Marianas with 6 delegates.
...March 15th Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio with a total of 691 delegates.

Primary schedule and rules: 2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Major Events Chronologically
Note: This post will be edited as election results come it.

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post #53 of 111 Old March 14th, 2016, 10:55 AM
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NSA is onto you, bro.
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post #54 of 111 Old March 14th, 2016, 11:00 AM Thread Starter
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The results in Post 1 have been updated. Trump has more than a third of the needed delegates with 460. Cruz is still within striking distance at 370. Rubio if far behind. Kasich has hardly left the starting gate.

Rubio's last chance will be Florida tomorrow. It's his home state and many think its a must win but the latest polls show him loosing this winner-take-all state to Trump 44% to 22%.

Kasich is fighting on in Ohio. Some polls have him leading, others ties. No one knows what Kasich is really planning (Is he vying for Vice-President? Is he hoping he'd be the choice in a brokered convention? Or, does he just want a seat at the table? ) But it is highly unlikely that he could win. He only has 63 delegates. He would have to will 1,174 of the remaining 1,402 (84%) of the remaining delegates to win. He can cheer all he wants about Ohio but it ain't happening on the first round of voting at the convention.

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post #55 of 111 Old March 15th, 2016, 11:29 AM
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So what states are voting today?

Are we all ready to watch Sanders get votes, then ultimately get less delegates? I love seeing that. It's absolutely hilarious.

---------- Post added at 10:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 AM ----------

I just looked at the first page. With over 600 delegates available today for the Democrats, Hillary could be just a few weeks out from securing the nomination after today.

Good, because she will sink like a ship against anyone who's running against her. Although I'm not so sure about a matchup between her and Trump. Boy wouldn't that be a train wreck?
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post #56 of 111 Old March 16th, 2016, 01:23 AM
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A brokered convention is such a double edged sword for the republicans. It may fix their Trump issue but it'll really fracture the party, even beyond how fractured it already is. Looking more and more like Hillary 2016.

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post #57 of 111 Old March 16th, 2016, 02:16 AM
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Where is @Eagle2000GT with the updated stats?!

This is going to be the most batshit election in history.
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post #58 of 111 Old March 16th, 2016, 02:19 AM
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Where is @Eagle2000GT with the updated stats?!

This is going to be the most batshit election in history.
what do you mean?

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post #59 of 111 Old March 16th, 2016, 02:31 AM
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So what states are voting today?

Are we all ready to watch Sanders get votes, then ultimately get less delegates? I love seeing that. It's absolutely hilarious.

---------- Post added at 10:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 AM ----------

I just looked at the first page. With over 600 delegates available today for the Democrats, Hillary could be just a few weeks out from securing the nomination after today.

Good, because she will sink like a ship against anyone who's running against her. Although I'm not so sure about a matchup between her and Trump. Boy wouldn't that be a train wreck?
Looks like cronyism wins out on the Dem side and fascism wins on the Repub side. How sad.

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post #60 of 111 Old March 16th, 2016, 03:33 AM
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rubio has officially suspended his campaign

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