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post #1 of 303 Old November 10th, 2016, 06:19 PM Thread Starter
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What I Expect A Trump Administration Will Do

There has been a lot of discussion over what to expect from a Trump administration. The left is panicking. Politicians and reporters on the left have quoted Trump out of context and flat just made up stuff. The rank-in-file came to believe the often repeated rhetoric. Trump is not the monster he was made out to be and he is not a conservative. I think the left is blowing everything out of proportion (of course that is typical for the left). Here is what I think will happen on some hot-topic issues.

Abortion It is unlikely that Rowe vs. Wade will be overturned. Throughout the decades since the Supreme Court made abortion legal it has continually reinforced that decision. But, the court has never said states couldn't ban certain types of abortion. They balanced the rights of the woman against the rights of the child. Partial birth abortions/very late term abortions may be outlawed and federal financing for Planned Parenthood may be cut. But Rowe vs. Wade will not be overturned.

Gay Marriage Trump is not anti-LGBT. Our country was divided with some states passing laws supporting it and others passing laws banning it. The Supreme Court saw a need for consistency because all states have to recognize each others marriages. The Court has always been reluctant to harm people. Thousands have gotten married since their decision. The Court, even with Trump nominees, is not likely to overturn that decision. Gay marriages are here to stay.
Picture of Trump holding a LBGT Flag:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-gay-equality/

Immigration Border security will be improved. They might even build a wall on parts of the border. Executive Orders stopping Border Patrol and ICE from enforcing current law will be shredded. Congress might even cut funding to sanctuary cities but that will be an uphill battle because Republicans do not have a filibuster proof Senate. Despite the rhetoric of the left there will not be any mass deportations. Trump and Pence have both said that after the border is secure and the criminals are deported Congress will need to decide what to do with the rest. I suspect the end result will be legal status with maybe a longer path to citizenship.

Refugees Bringing in refugees from countries that sponsor terrorists will be stopped for a while as our government tries to figure out how to vet them. As we have seen in the past those that believe in a strict adherence to Sharia Law are not very happy living here. Bringing them here as refugees really isn't doing them a favor. The administration might even slow down issuing temporary visas. Muslims legally in the country will not be deported. Muslim citizens will not be placed in concentration camps.

War on Terrorism Trump has already said he does not think we need to be involving ourselves in everyone else's civil war. He is not more likely to put boots on the ground than Obama. He has already said he will not create a no-fly zone in Syria to stop Russian planes from flying. Russia would ignore it and either we would back down or shoot down a Russian aircraft. Trump has said he would work with Russia to try to find a solution to the violence.

Gun Control Federal gun control is dead. The question is the ability of the states to limit a Constitutional right. The justices nominated by Trump will most like overturn some of the more restrictive state laws. But they will not overturn laws that prevent criminals or mentally ill from getting guns.

Climate Change Trump and the Republican Congress has made it clear that they will allow the Keystone pipeline, the drilling for oil on public lands, and will most likely stop the EPA from passing more restrictive regulations on CO2. The entire issue of a carbon tax is dead. Washington state couldn't pass it and most of the industrial nations that originally passed carbon taxes have backed them down or gotten rid of them entirely. Are we going to go back to cities filled with smog? No. EPA restrictions on particle emissions will not be overturned except those that are technologically impossible to meet.

ObamaCare The Affordable Care Act and nationalized health care is dead. It was passed without a single Republican vote. Republicans will replace it but some of the more popular parts of ObamaCare will be included such as children staying on their parents health care longer and stopping the denial of insurance based on preexisting conditions. The Republican approach will not be a one-size fits all federal approach but will allow the states to tailor health care to fit the needs of their own citizens. To control costs health insurance companies will be allowed to compete across state lines just like they do with auto insurance.

TariffsThis may be an uphill battle. A Republican Congress is not normally inclined to restrict free trade but he might get law passed which strengthens the anti-dumping laws.
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post #2 of 303 Old November 10th, 2016, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Eagle2000GT View Post
Gay Marriage Trump is not anti-LGBT.
No, but his VP is the epitome of anti-LGBT up to and including conversion therapy. Yikes!

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Originally Posted by Eagle2000GT View Post
Climate Change Trump and the Republican Congress has made it clear that they will allow the Keystone pipeline, the drilling for oil on public lands, and will most likely stop the EPA from passing more restrictive regulations on CO2. The entire issue of a carbon tax is dead. Washington state couldn't pass it and most of the industrial nations that originally passed carbon taxes have backed them down or gotten rid of them entirely. Are we going to go back to cities filled with smog? No. EPA restrictions on particle emissions will not be overturned except those that are technologically impossible to meet.
god help us all

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ObamaCare The Affordable Care Act and nationalized health care is dead. It was passed without a single Republican vote. Republicans will replace it but some of the more popular parts of ObamaCare will be included such as children staying on their parents health care longer and stopping the denial of insurance based on preexisting conditions. The Republican approach will not be a one-size fits all federal approach but will allow the states to tailor health care to fit the needs of their own citizens. To control costs health insurance companies will be allowed to compete across state lines just like they do with auto insurance.
I hope you're right here. If they scrap it without considering the positive aspects of it (I really don't understand how anyone could be against those two parts at the very least unless you're a psychopath or in the upper echelons of an insurance company [pretty much the same thing]), there are going to be huge swaths of people who will be absolutely crushed.


Call me a hippy or whatever you want but I truly believe we are fucked with the anti-intellectual movement against and politicizing of climate science. The entire freaking world including China and even the military have plans in place for the future of climate change. The answer may not be carbon taxation but the fact that we care more about corporations' bottom lines over the stability of the planet's ecosystem blows my mind. Then again there's a huge percentage of people that think the planet is 8000 years old so whatever.

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post #3 of 303 Old November 10th, 2016, 08:11 PM Thread Starter
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Call me a hippy or whatever you want but I truly believe we are fucked with the anti-intellectual movement against and politicizing of climate science. The entire freaking world including China and even the military have plans in place for the future of climate change. The answer may not be carbon taxation but the fact that we care more about corporations' bottom lines over the stability of the planet's ecosystem blows my mind. Then again there's a huge percentage of people that think the planet is 8000 years old so whatever.
We beat climate change to death in one thread. Here is the bottom line of the climate change argument because there is data supporting both sides of the argument. Alarmists question the funding, credentials or motivation of the scientists that question anthopogenic climate change. They attack the person not so much the data. And even want to use the full force of law to silence any opposing data. Deniers question the alarmist's data and conclusions. They point to failed computer models and manipulated studies and charts. We must have posted a thousand sources in that thread and I don't wish to re-argue the topic.

It's 6000 years not 8000. And I'm not one of those. I'm a firm believer in evolution. My church accepts it and surprisingly so does Pat Robertson.
Pat Robertson Dispels Creationist Idea That Earth Is 6,000 Years Old (VIDEO) | The Huffington Post

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post #4 of 303 Old November 10th, 2016, 10:08 PM
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We beat climate change to death in one thread. Here is the bottom line of the climate change argument because there is data supporting both sides of the argument. Alarmists question the funding, credentials or motivation of the scientists that question anthopogenic climate change. They attack the person not so much the data. And even want to use the full force of law to silence any opposing data. Deniers question the alarmist's data and conclusions. They point to failed computer models and manipulated studies and charts. We must have posted a thousand sources in that thread and I don't wish to re-argue the topic.
I'm not looking to debate the data. I will, however, happily reaffirm that there are people like me that are not looking for proactive methods of fighting it based on "feel good" (as I'm fairly certain you put it) policy. I truly believe that it is a huge threat to our existence.

I have no stake in this game, I'm not bringing children into this world (no - not due to my belief in climate change) so I'm not looking to protect it for their sake. My wife and I in our late twenties are in the top 10% income in the United States so I'm not looking to just fuck over high-income earners out of spite.

I'm not just giving it lip service - I risk getting hit by cars three days a week riding my bicycle 21 miles round trip to and from work and use mass transit whenever I can. I voted to increase my own taxes upwards of $400/year in order to further expand mass transit knowing that it's beneficial for most even though my household will be paying the higher end of the taxes, relatively. My wife works in the wind energy industry because of her beliefs in the future of renewables (you could claim this is stake in the game, but my wife would be able to find employment in a different industry literally in a matter of days if she needed to). I'm constantly trying to improve my skillset in the hopes of entering the renewables industry in the future. Hell, if I want to come off as spiteful, you could even say I took advantage of the oil industry in order to increase my engineering skillset - although I got hammered by the oil crash, I had no intention of staying in the industry for more than five years as it was a strategic move to increase my design and engineering knowledge.

I very highly doubt my wife and I are outliers. It's not just a bunch of worriers spouting nonsense with the hope of toppling capitalism and the 1%.

If the majority of astrological scientists said that in 100 years there was a 70% chance of an asteroid destroying a large portion of the African continent but we could develop the technology to reduce that risk down to 10% or less if we increased our tax burden .5% per year (this is probably too high) would you just say "nah, I'd rather wait and see how this plays out" with the potential that by the time we determine the true risk it would be too late to prevent it from happening? You either prevent the disaster from happening or you've developed the technology to counter a future threat if the one that brought on the issue was incorrect.

Scientists aren't infallible. But if you told me to put corporate executives, politicians and scientists on a scale of trustworthiness - the latter would be so far away from the other two you wouldn't even be able to see them on the horizon.

I'm not asking you to fall in line and believe that anthropogenic climate change is real. I understand and respect your viewpoint because you grew up in a time where this whole discussion began and some studies and research were shown to be incorrect. But please understand that there is a large portion of us that deem it a real threat not because it makes us "feel good" to do something or because fucking Al Gore is the the smartest man on the planet or because we want to see capitalism fall due to unreasonable taxation but because we have come to the logical conclusion that the evidence continues to heavily tip the scale based on an absurd amount of expert's research.

We're not all idiotic liberal drones.

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It's 6000 years not 8000. And I'm not one of those. I'm a firm believer in evolution.
lol, I know. I wasn't meaning to draw that conclusion based on your belief opposing mine. Just that that is a shared belief among a lot of people.

---------- Post added at 06:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:00 PM ----------

Sorry, I should follow this up by saying that I fully understand why a large portion of the US can't even begin to fathom the consequences of climate change when they've got to worry about how they're going to pay rent or put food on the table for them and their children. It becomes the absolute bottom of their concerns when they're trying to figure out how their bills are going to be paid and I get that someone like me saying "YOU NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THIS FIRST" would come off as the douchiest thing on the planet. But I'm not in that situation so I feel as though perhaps I can actually do something about it while I'm at an advantage. So yeah, it's not going to be scary to the people in the rust belt or Appalachia compared to their current concerns, but it for sure scares me and it scares me that the entire Federal Government now has the ability to set back so much progress in that regard. That's why I'm saying that I will do what I can to fight the Republicans on that matter.

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post #5 of 303 Old November 10th, 2016, 11:48 PM Thread Starter
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What bothers me is the lengths that alarmists will go to in order to silence science they don't agree with. Including using the full force of law to silence research. Below is a ground breaking study on solar cycles. The researchers discovered there are two dynamos affecting sun activity. The model they created accurately forecast past inconsistencies that before couldn't be explained. Climate alarmists tried to keep it from being published. That tactic doesn't really strengthen their argument. If they believed in science then they should believe in all science not just studies that agree with their opinion. And the funny thing is that Zharkova doesn't even deny anthropogenic climate change.
The study: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo
The attempt to silence her: Physicist who foresees global cooling says other scientists tried to 'silence' her - Washington Times

You believe that scientists are driving the argument. I believe politicians who have editorial rights over the UN IPCC report are. On this we have to disagree.
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post #6 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 12:15 AM
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Haha, I won't do any debating since like you said, we've gone down this road a hundred times. I just wanted to say what I said up above. I hope you're able to at least understand where I'm coming from. If not, then ah well.

To get back to the overall topic:

One point you didn't hit on and the one that many analysts and social media personalities (I don't really know what else to call them?) have been talking about is how Trump won over so many people with the promise of bringing back all these jobs that people in flyover country, the rust belt and Appalachia have been without for a few years now.

Okay, the government could lift all these regulations and bring coal back online and start forcing the oil industry back into existence (I don't think that can just...happen?) so that's a few jobs. But like I was saying in the thread I started about automation, I truly don't believe that manufacturing is coming back. You could lift all regulations and taxes on manufacturing businesses and you still couldn't make it more profitable to employ Americans over Mexicans or Asians.

I guess you could somehow "force" businesses to bring manufacturing back but then doesn't that become anti-Capitalist? Not to mention automation would eliminate a fuck ton of positions so you'd have a handful of specialized workers and the blue collar button pushers would still not have a job.

I think it's going to be a slap in the face in a year or two when the job prospects of these areas still haven't turned around. Americans cost too much damn money and at the same time people don't want to pay the prices for goods that Americans make, at least not the non-specialized, every day items.

Also, who's going to go after the business owners that employ illegal migrant workers for farming and construction that keep those costs down? Who's going to slap fines on them?
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post #7 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 12:32 AM Thread Starter
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I agree that automation has reduced the need for workers. That has been happening for over a hundred years. Actually, a better way to say it is that automation make workers more productive. But all the jobs lost were not lost to automation. And, yes you can force manufacturing to come back to the United States. All you have to do is make imports more expensive. That tax is called a tariff. Tariffs were used all the time before "free trade" became popular. Back then all countries protected critical industries.

I'm not a big advocate of blanket tariffs. But it is well known that China and other countries are creating unfair trade by manipulating their currency. Well, that and the fact that many countries that we deal with still apply tariffs to our goods going into their countries. I need to make one thing perfectly clear. Tariffs increase the cost to consumers. Exactly the same as higher wages increase the cost to consumers. But tariffs levied on products coming from a currency manipulator is only making the competition fair.

Dumping (selling products in the United States below manufacturing cost) is already illegal. But currency manipulation doesn't fall under the dumping laws. That needs to change.

Let's use India as an example. I have read that India requires most of the products sold in its country to be manufactured there. Many economists believe that is slowing down India's economic growth and it is. But in the end India will have a strong manufacturing base which will create a larger middle class and an overall stronger economy.

The important thing is that tariffs need to be a surgical tool and not over-reaching. Tariffs can be levied on products by both trading partners resulting in a trade war.

But the most important thing Trump and the Republicans can do is to reduce the cost of manufacturing in the United States. That is reduced regulations and taxes.

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post #8 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 03:57 PM Thread Starter
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No, but his VP is the epitome of anti-LGBT up to and including conversion therapy.
Again, you are believing the misleading rhetoric of the left. You might want to read this:
Stop Calling Mike Pence Homophobic | The Daily Caller

Snoops even says it is only partially true. Pence said in 2000 (16 years ago) that he wanted to make sure the organizations fighting AIDS/HIV are also trying to change “behaviors.” He did not say “sexual orientation.” Changing behaviors is teaching people to use condoms to prevent the spread of AIDS.
Mike Pence Supported 'Gay Conversion' Therapy? : snopes.com

Now for some history. It was maybe 20 years ago when science developed the ability to scan brain activity. They discovered that men and women's brains function differently. This actually lead to some jokes as in “men use only half their brain and women use all their brain.” As research continued scientists discovered that an area of homosexual men’s brains functioned more like women's than men's and an area of homosexual women’s brains functioned more like men's than women's. That pretty much laid to rest the idea that people are socialized, or trained to be homosexual. They are not. They are born that way. But at one time that was a big debate.

Science learns things all the time. It might be difficult to believe but back when I was in the fifth grade they were still teaching that the continents didn’t move. Continental drift wasn’t yet an acceptable theory. With recent scientific discoveries my children, and many of you, are the first generation to be taught that homosexuality is a natural sexual orientation, and not a choice.

I realize that this is next to impossible because of our sound-bite news reporting, but try not to believe all of the political rhetoric. The vast majority of it is misleading and some is outright lies.

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post #9 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 04:25 PM
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I already know the responses you're going to give but just for other people's knowledge (of course I'm sure some people believe Wikipedia is some liberal smear machine or something weird - click on the sources if it makes you more comfortable):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_P..._rights_policy

I won't debate the details because we can interpret the sentiments all day and night to conform to our views. This dude obviously condemns that group. I don't think even with a majority conservative Supreme Court that gay rights will be revoked, but it takes no effort at all to understand why people are concerned about his viewpoints as VP.

Fuck it, I'll link it directly.

Quote:
Congress should oppose any effort to put gay and lesbian relationships on an equal legal status with heterosexual marriage.
Quote:
Congress should oppose any effort to recognize homosexual’s as a "discreet and insular minority" entitled to the protection of anti-discrimination laws similar to those extended to women and ethnic minorities.
He may not be out beating down gay people but he is most definitely anti-gay.

You can point out the vague politic-speak or whatever but the writing is all over the walls.

Will he put forth policy to reverse standing gay-rights issues? Not likely. But the motherfucker doesn't like gays.

I don't think Trump gives a shit though.

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post #10 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 04:39 PM Thread Starter
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What the hell is wrong with you! You obviously didn't read a thing in the links I posted. There is nothing in the quote that both of us posted to suggest "conversion therapy" or "electric shock therapy." The data in the links I posted clearly say that your Wikipedia reference is a complete lie. That is not unusual for Wikipedia when it comes to political issues. What I posted even says that electric shock therapy was stopped in 1973 when homosexuality was no longer classified as an illness. That was 28 years before Pence's statement. The entire idea that federal money would go for electric shock therapy is completely ridiculous.
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Full disclosure: I don't really have concerns in regards to the LGBT topic but I'll call a spade a spade.

I have one concern: unopposed deregulation of industries. I think conservatives give way too much credit to unregulated Capitalism and I think it's going to hurt a lot of people in the long term and I think the people that voted for Trump in the hopes of them getting their jobs back and reducing their healthcare costs are going to get a good ol' slap in the face a few years down the road.

---------- Post added at 12:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:44 PM ----------

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Originally Posted by Eagle2000GT View Post
What the hell is wrong with you! You obviously didn't read a thing in the links I posted. There is nothing in the quote that both of us posted to suggest "conversion therapy" or "electric shock therapy." The data in the links I posted clearly say that your Wikipedia reference is a complete lie. That is not unusual for Wikipedia when it comes to political issues. What I posted even says that electric shock therapy was stopped in 1973 when homosexuality was no longer classified as an illness. That was 28 years before Pence's statement. The entire idea that federal money would go for electric shock therapy is completely ridiculous.
You're right, I missed your second paragraph.

---------- Post added at 12:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 PM ----------

Also, awkward timing but since it's Veterans Day Thanks for your service.

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I have one concern: unopposed deregulation of industries. I think conservatives give way too much credit to unregulated Capitalism and I think it's going to hurt a lot of people in the long term and I think the people that voted for Trump in the hopes of them getting their jobs back and reducing their healthcare costs are going to get a good ol' slap in the face a few years down the road.
We are not going to have unregulated capitalism. Even Adam Smith who wrote the Wealth of Nations (considered to be the bible of capitalism) in 1776 didn't think totally unregulated capitalism was a good idea.

Congress wrote laws for safety, clean air, clean water, endangered species, etc. with bi-partisan support. Those laws are not going to be overturned. After a law is written it is then up to the executive branch to implement those laws through regulations. Regulations are not laws. They implement laws.

But what we have today is a ever growing government bureaucracy that is stretching laws to regulate things that Congress never intended. One example is the EPA wanting to regulate farm ponds as navigable water ways or redefining wetlands as any land that has standing water three days per year. Another is the BATFE redefining long standing definitions in order to ban green tipped bullets that have been legally used for decades. The list goes on and on and on.

When conservatives talk about over-regulation we are talking about bureaucratic regulations that go far beyond the intent of the law, not a complete deregulation of industries.

And for things that really need to be changed such as the 30 hour work week in ACA. That requires a change in law, not in regulation.

---------- Post added at 04:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:19 PM ----------

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Also, awkward timing but since it's Veterans Day Thanks for your service.
Thank you. And its not awkward. We're having a polite discussion.
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post #13 of 303 Old November 11th, 2016, 08:56 PM
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When conservatives talk about over-regulation we are talking about bureaucratic regulations that go far beyond the intent of the law, not a complete deregulation of industries.
And there is where the rub comes. INTENT for conservatives vs liberals are two totally different things. This is where congress comes to a crossroads and has to decide which of the parties interpretations or INTENT of said law is where they're going to base their regulations on.

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And that is precisely why Congress shouldn't write ambiguous laws or, in my opinion, comprehensive laws which by their very nature are suppose to be all encompassing and intentionally ambiguous.

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Like already stated it seems as if some parts of the ACA look a bit appealing vs just a full out repeal.


Trump likes main Obamacare provisions 'very much' - BBC News

This isn't too surprising though by from the jump it seemed like campaign talk that some latched onto and ran with.

https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/blogs...ailing-clinton

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post #16 of 303 Old November 12th, 2016, 12:03 AM Thread Starter
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Actually both of those articles make sense. ObamaCare is a disaster. It wrecked havoc on people's current insurances plans and failed to meet any of its objectives. Trump during a primary debate when pressed over ObamaCare responded by saying that we are not going to leave Americans to die in the street. It only make sense that he would want to keep the two most popular parts of the law.

Ford pardoned Nixon to keep our government from being dragged in the gutter. Trump is not a conservative. To implement what he wants to do he will need some Democratic support. He will not get that using the government in a vendetta against Clinton. He should stay out of the investigation entirely and let the FBI and his justice department do their jobs. Although, an independent counsel might be necessary to try to keep the investigation from being politicalized.

P.S. It's starting to look like Trump can be presidential. But I really don't want to rush to judgement.

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post #17 of 303 Old November 12th, 2016, 12:17 AM
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P.S. It's starting to look like Trump can be presidential. But I really don't want to rush to judgement.
what do you mean by that?

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post #18 of 303 Old November 12th, 2016, 12:23 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Lee. 30 View Post
Like already stated it seems as if some parts of the ACA look a bit appealing vs just a full out repeal.


Trump likes main Obamacare provisions 'very much' - BBC News

This isn't too surprising though by from the jump it seemed like campaign talk that some latched onto and ran with.

https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/blogs...ailing-clinton
If Trump becomes rational and level-headed after all this shit the past 15 months, it will be quite hilarious. I won't get my hopes up until he's in the office and shit starts actually happening and how he reacts to attacks on his character.

---------- Post added at 08:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:21 PM ----------

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...He should stay out of the investigation entirely and let the FBI and his justice department do their jobs. Although, an independent counsel might be necessary to try to keep the investigation from being politicalized.
Haha. Oops, too late!

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post #19 of 303 Old November 12th, 2016, 12:28 AM
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If Trump becomes rational and level-headed after all this shit the past 15 months, it will be quite hilarious. I won't get my hopes up until he's in the office and shit starts actually happening and how he reacts to attacks on his character.
i expect him to be like obama and lose a lot of his charisma once he's in office. if he tries to stray too far from the path intended by TPTB, he'll get kennedy'd. people were tired of republicans in '08 so they voted for obama. people are tired of democrats now so they voted for trump. but the same people will still be pulling the strings from behind the scenes to nudge (cass sunstein reference because i'm well read as fuck) the world in a specific direction

loomynardy confirm
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post #20 of 303 Old November 12th, 2016, 12:47 AM
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i expect him to be like obama and lose a lot of his charisma once he's in office. if he tries to stray too far from the path intended by TPTB, he'll get kennedy'd. people were tired of republicans in '08 so they voted for obama. people are tired of democrats now so they voted for trump. but the same people will still be pulling the strings from behind the scenes to nudge (cass sunstein reference because i'm well read as fuck) the world in a specific direction

loomynardy confirm
But who is REALLY pulling the strings?

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