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post #41 of 67 Old January 19th, 2017, 08:49 PM
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Trump and his administration will not be able to fight off the advancement of technology and automation. But we're going to keep pointing to offshoring being the number one contributor to the destruction of American manufacturing. Those unemployed think it's bad now? Trump is not going to make it better with his trade wars.
I guess I see fewer line jobs [vs original amount] as better than zero line jobs [vs original amount]. If there were originally 1,000 line jobs and they cut that in half to 500 through automation, that's still 500 people employed. If they would have moved to Mexico there would be 0 American workers employed.

So one can either focus on saying we're losing jobs and look how terrible it is. Or one can focus on the jobs that were saved and the people still working and earning a living because of it. While technology will happen that's pretty unavoidable. So do we accept losing all jobs overseas (which can be avoided) or some of the jobs to technology (which is ultimately unavoidable)?

Even with losing SOME of the line jobs to automation, I would say that's better than losing ALL of the line jobs to Mexico.
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post #42 of 67 Old January 19th, 2017, 09:10 PM
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I guess I see fewer line jobs [vs original amount] as better than zero line jobs [vs original amount]. If there were originally 1,000 line jobs and they cut that in half to 500 through automation, that's still 500 people employed. If they would have moved to Mexico there would be 0 American workers employed.

So one can either focus on saying we're losing jobs and look how terrible it is. Or one can focus on the jobs that were saved and the people still working and earning a living because of it. While technology will happen that's pretty unavoidable. So do we accept losing all jobs overseas (which can be avoided) or some of the jobs to technology (which is ultimately unavoidable)?

Even with losing SOME of the line jobs to automation, I would say that's better than losing ALL of the line jobs to Mexico.
You have a point and that had crossed my mind. They saved 1000 jobs as opposed to zero jobs in the short term. Automation development due to the tax breaks could, in a few years, reduce those jobs further. If those 1000 workers view this as long-term, loyal employment, I think they need a good slap to the head. I'd personally be taking the opportunity to figure out a way to bail out of that facility. I played the waiting game before getting laid off from the oil industry and it's not fun. Luckily, I had the time, finances, no children and a spouse's high-paying job to fall back on when it ultimately caught up to me, so it didn't destroy my life - but that's not the same story for most people.

I guess what I would try to get at is that we shouldn't be doing an "out of sight out of mind" approach to the inevitibilities of the future. Technological progression does not stop. Although we're not at the level that sci-fi envisioned in the 20th century, we've made some pretty incredible leaps, ESPECIALLY in regards to production work.

I don't believe it's far-fetched to imagine that non-specialized labor will become obsolete in the next fifty or so years and we need to be thinking long and hard about potential solutions to the resulting unemployment instead of blaming it on something that is much less of an issue (read: not a non-issue) than what it's being played up as. Sticking our heads in the sand has the potential to really fuck up the future.

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post #43 of 67 Old January 20th, 2017, 07:06 AM Thread Starter
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I don't believe it's far-fetched to imagine that non-specialized labor will become obsolete in the next fifty or so years and we need to be thinking long and hard about potential solutions to the resulting unemployment instead of blaming it on something that is much less of an issue (read: not a non-issue) than what it's being played up as. Sticking our heads in the sand has the potential to really fuck up the future.
Hard solutions to the resulting unemployment? If jobs are disappearing in one area then to keep unemployment down jobs need to be created in other areas. And the answer isn't more college degrees. We already have too many college graduates. Part of the solution is to increase training in the trades.

But that isn't going to be enough. Technology is going to enlarge our permanent underclass. I've been thinking about this. In order to support the unemployed governments are going to have to tax machines. If you automate your factory eliminating jobs then the automation that you install will be taxed.

Another answer is limited immigration. If there are no unskilled jobs we certainly do not need to bring in more unskilled workers. Without immigration the United States, as well as all other developed nations, would have a declining population. It takes an average of 2.1 births per woman to maintain a stable population. The birth rate in the United States is around 1.8. A declining population needs fewer jobs.

But that has its own challenges. Fewer birth rates means an aging population. We are having that now. And a declining population means fewer consumers. So we have fewer people with a greater percentage of them unemployed. Whose going to be buying the goods those automated factories are producing?

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post #44 of 67 Old January 21st, 2017, 06:52 AM
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Hard solutions to the resulting unemployment? If jobs are disappearing in one area then to keep unemployment down jobs need to be created in other areas. And the answer isn't more college degrees. We already have too many college graduates. Part of the solution is to increase training in the trades.
Agreed, but the answer isn't more minimum wage jobs either. Anytime the issue of a "living wage" gets brought up, we get the lectures about pulling yourself up by the bootstraps and "back in my day" stories that don't really take into account the landscape of jobs in this country. By far the largest job pools in this country are non skilled. Cashiers, retail sales associates, fast food workers, and waiters and waitresses dominate US jobs. So much so that they've gone from that job you get as a teenager to that job you may have to resort to as a grown adult with kids. Especially those with any history of incarceration(*cough* legalize *cough*).

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But that isn't going to be enough. Technology is going to enlarge our permanent underclass. I've been thinking about this. In order to support the unemployed governments are going to have to tax machines. If you automate your factory eliminating jobs then the automation that you install will be taxed.
Don't you think these businesses and corporations are already taxed enough though? I'm not meaning this in a mocking way, just doesn't strike me as something you'd really be on board with.
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post #45 of 67 Old January 21st, 2017, 02:26 PM
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Agreed, but the answer isn't more minimum wage jobs either. Anytime the issue of a "living wage" gets brought up, we get the lectures about pulling yourself up by the bootstraps and "back in my day" stories that don't really take into account the landscape of jobs in this country. By far the largest job pools in this country are non skilled. Cashiers, retail sales associates, fast food workers, and waiters and waitresses dominate US jobs. So much so that they've gone from that job you get as a teenager to that job you may have to resort to as a grown adult with kids. Especially those with any history of incarceration(*cough* legalize *cough*).



Don't you think these businesses and corporations are already taxed enough though? I'm not meaning this in a mocking way, just doesn't strike me as something you'd really be on board with.
I don't think he's promoting taxing machines, just saying that's the next logical step. If a business has 1000 employees, each one of those employees wages are taxed, they pay into social security, medicare, etc. The company also pays taxes on them as well. If they can automate a large percentage of their business, say 1000 people becomes 400 people, then the government loses 60% of their tax income, and they're going to want to make it back, so legislation will be introduced, most likely under the guise of lowering automation, to tax the automated equipment. It'll be less than the wages of employees, so businesses will pay it, but the government gets to pat themselves on the back and say, "We did SOMETHING" while still being useless in any practical way.

And regarding the living wage, with there being no in between of minimum wage jobs and college degree jobs, there are a great many jobs yet that don't require a college degree, or even trade school.
Again, going to trade school or similar may increase your chances of getting a job, but not necessarily. You have to demonstrate the skill to keep the job.

Even 20 years ago, there were still apprenticeship programs to get new people into jobs. They aren't as widespread anymore, but that's because trades style jobs are not viewed as desirable.

I know this is conjecture, and I know you hate it, but still. I have no college degree. I work in IT, based on experience I started getting at 8 years old running network cables and helping load Novell on server computers (this was back in 1982 mind you). If you want an IT job, people go to college for computer science, which generally doesn't teach you shit about building and troubleshooting actual computers. You can take classes on Server 20xx, Windows whatever, but very few of those teach anything that someone who has been working on computers and has a lot of experience can't solve faster. I can't even tell you how many "IT Specialists" I have to tell "You're wrong" to because they have little to no experience outside of their little specialty. It's like a car mechanic who spent a year studying brake systems, but is unable to change the oil, a basic and fundamental step that requires very little training and should be fairly obvious to someone who works on another aspect of car mechanics.

I understand the concept of "They powered their way through school, they must be dedicated", but that's woefully inaccurate. It's not 1955 anymore. A college degree is useful for accountants, scientists, doctors, etc. For someone to drive a desk and plug numbers into a program all day? Not so much.

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woodman: achieving the impossible since 1967. 1973? 1980? 1985? 1976? whatever, you get my point
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ford's advertising slogan was literally "you can pay for all of it today or you can go fuck yourself"
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post #46 of 67 Old January 21st, 2017, 10:56 PM Thread Starter
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All of you need to know. I don't know the answers. If technology hits as hard as some of you suspect then some of those science fiction movies will come to fruition. You do realize even in a planned economy (communism) there is an extremely wealthy class and poverty exists all around it. It is the political class. If your technology forecast come to bear then the wealthy will still be there.

That is not yet true in America. We still have a little bit of individuality. A little bit. A little bit that truly believes in the constitution. A little bit that believes that we can be what ever we want without the control of the federal government.

I realize that many of you are scared. That you believe the... well, perhaps you just believe the worst.

This is really funny. I'm 67 years old. I now have hope.

P.S. I really don't want to get into name calling. If you have specifics then maybe I'll respond.

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post #47 of 67 Old January 22nd, 2017, 03:41 PM
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All of you need to know. I don't know the answers. If technology hits as hard as some of you suspect then some of those science fiction movies will come to fruition. You do realize even in a planned economy (communism) there is an extremely wealthy class and poverty exists all around it. It is the political class. If your technology forecast come to bear then the wealthy will still be there.

That is not yet true in America. We still have a little bit of individuality. A little bit. A little bit that truly believes in the constitution. A little bit that believes that we can be what ever we want without the control of the federal government.

I realize that many of you are scared. That you believe the... well, perhaps you just believe the worst.

This is really funny. I'm 67 years old. I now have hope.

P.S. I really don't want to get into name calling. If you have specifics then maybe I'll respond.
You can hope all you want but the facts bear out the inevitable. Technology is exponentially expanding at rates that point to a transformatively different world in the next 20 - 30 years. Corporate america will embrace it's cost saving benefits at breakneck speeds due to their short sighted profit markers.

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post #48 of 67 Old January 23rd, 2017, 01:28 AM
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And regarding the living wage, with there being no in between of minimum wage jobs and college degree jobs, there are a great many jobs yet that don't require a college degree, or even trade school.
Again, going to trade school or similar may increase your chances of getting a job, but not necessarily. You have to demonstrate the skill to keep the job.

Even 20 years ago, there were still apprenticeship programs to get new people into jobs. They aren't as widespread anymore, but that's because trades style jobs are not viewed as desirable.

I know this is conjecture, and I know you hate it, but still. I have no college degree. I work in IT, based on experience I started getting at 8 years old running network cables and helping load Novell on server computers (this was back in 1982 mind you). If you want an IT job, people go to college for computer science, which generally doesn't teach you shit about building and troubleshooting actual computers. You can take classes on Server 20xx, Windows whatever, but very few of those teach anything that someone who has been working on computers and has a lot of experience can't solve faster. I can't even tell you how many "IT Specialists" I have to tell "You're wrong" to because they have little to no experience outside of their little specialty. It's like a car mechanic who spent a year studying brake systems, but is unable to change the oil, a basic and fundamental step that requires very little training and should be fairly obvious to someone who works on another aspect of car mechanics.

I understand the concept of "They powered their way through school, they must be dedicated", but that's woefully inaccurate. It's not 1955 anymore. A college degree is useful for accountants, scientists, doctors, etc. For someone to drive a desk and plug numbers into a program all day? Not so much.
I never meant to imply that there is either college or failure. I never even brought up college. My point is that our economy has become service based, and the demand for minimum or low wage paying jobs is as high as ever while those core middle class jobs have been fading for decades. Not that there aren't any, or that you need a degree for them. I'm a proponent of ending the indoctrination of children where we're telling them that you MUST go to college or you're a failure, but this is straying from my point. There are places where there are no natural resources to profit from or any manufacturing businesses around. Black fucking holes of job despair, and the people who live there are already poor with shitty schools. I grew up on the beach side of 113 here in Delaware, where seasonal jobs allow people some extra coin. Over in western Delaware, it's fucking rough. I never realized how shitty it was until I moved out near these shit areas. The only decent job for someone in the area is real estate(which isn't nearly as strong as out east), truck driving, or owning your own (successful) business. Landscapers and other general laborers make way less than their counterparts just 45 minutes east.
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post #49 of 67 Old January 11th, 2018, 10:50 AM
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I heard something browsing through the channels early this morning that reminded me of an somewhat older thread here. It seems as if Carrier is going to lay off another couple of hundred workers possibly sometime this month.

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/car...-to-save-jobs/


That seems to be on top of the round that was laid off months ago.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...mer/356368001/


Just an small update to it bc when I heard about it I remembered that there was a thread on it. If anyone has some more in depth or insider info on it surely it will be shared but it seems as if some of the news of those layoffs date back to months ago as far as updating goes.

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post #50 of 67 Old January 11th, 2018, 11:10 AM
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It's going to keep happening. The tax cuts are nice and all and obviously the PR from companies giving $1000 bonuses to their existing employees makes everyone's loins all giddy but 1-time low-cost bonuses are a drop in the bucket compared to what they're saving with tax cuts.

The reality is that if they find a reason for the jobs to not be needed, they're sure as hell not gonna keep anyone employed when they could make records by laying off unnecessary labor. Some people like to put their heads in the sand in regards to automation, but it is an unstoppable wave - especially in manufacturing and soon to be industries that you wouldn't expect.

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post #51 of 67 Old January 11th, 2018, 04:13 PM
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It's going to keep happening. The tax cuts are nice and all and obviously the PR from companies giving $1000 bonuses to their existing employees makes everyone's loins all giddy but 1-time low-cost bonuses are a drop in the bucket compared to what they're saving with tax cuts.

The reality is that if they find a reason for the jobs to not be needed, they're sure as hell not gonna keep anyone employed when they could make records by laying off unnecessary labor. Some people like to put their heads in the sand in regards to automation, but it is an unstoppable wave - especially in manufacturing and soon to be industries that you wouldn't expect.
One of the first lessons I learned running my own business is it's better to give out a one time bonus than to give someone a raise that will follow them throughout their tenure with the company. While the bonuses are being touted as a sign that the tax bill is working, which is completely idiotic on it's face, I would have liked to have seen a wholesale rise in actual wages.

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post #52 of 67 Old January 11th, 2018, 06:17 PM
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One of the first lessons I learned running my own business is it's better to give out a one time bonus than to give someone a raise that will follow them throughout their tenure with the company. While the bonuses that are being touted as a sign that the tax bill is working, which is completely idiotic on it's face, I would have liked to have seen a wholesale rise in actual wages.

John
Also dat gift tax rate. That $1000 is only $650 once it hits my account. That $1000 over the year is much better after taxes and I'm less likely to blow it on frivolous shit. Plus it'll, at the very least, still be there next year as well!

It may help short-term morale dangling a carrot in front of you while chopping the heads off some of your fellow bunny-friends, but ultimately, a permanent raise without being laid off would be much more impressive.

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post #53 of 67 Old January 12th, 2018, 06:33 PM Thread Starter
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Also dat gift tax rate. That $1000 is only $650 once it hits my account. That $1000 over the year is much better after taxes and I'm less likely to blow it on frivolous shit.
No it isn't. An additional $1,000 of taxable income is an additional $1000 of taxable income it doesn't matter if its spread over 52 weeks or given as a lump some. In the end its taxed exactly the same. And if the payroll clerk knows what they are doing the taxes deducted will come out approximately the same. It's not automatic though. They have to adjust the program to make it happen. We did it all the time at my company.

And $1000 divided my 52 is less than $20 per week. People are far more likely to blow $20 per week on frivolous things than $1000. (or if you prefer after tax dollars, they are more likely to blow $13 per week on frivolous things instead of $650.)

You are correct that a pay raise is better long term than a bonus because pay raises build upon each other and bonus don't. During good years my company gave both.

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post #54 of 67 Old January 12th, 2018, 06:46 PM
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No it isn't. An additional $1,000 of taxable income is an additional $1000 of taxable income it doesn't matter if its spread over 52 weeks or given as a lump some. In the end its taxed exactly the same. And if the payroll clerk knows what they are doing the taxes deducted will come out approximately the same. It's not automatic though. They have to adjust the program to make it happen. We did it all the time at my company.

And $1000 divided my 52 is less than $20 per week. People are far more likely to blow $20 per week on frivolous things than $1000. (or if you prefer after tax dollars, they are more likely to blow $13 per week on frivolous things instead of $650.)

You are correct that a pay raise is better long term than a bonus because pay raises build upon each other and bonus don't. During good years my company gave both.
Ah yeah, you're right. At the end of the year it's all the same, at the time it's given it's higher.

Still, $1000 raise is much nicer and indicative of a company's idea of the value of their employees - hell just for keeping up with inflation.

“A young man was following Him, wearing nothing but a linen sheet over his naked body; and they seized him. But he pulled free of the linen sheet and escaped naked.” (Mark 14:51-52)
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post #55 of 67 Old January 13th, 2018, 03:35 PM
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THIS is much better evidence of the tax plan making a difference. We'll see if they lay off a bunch of people next week though lol. Then again this is #fakenews network CNN, so I don't know if it's a trustworthy source...

Fiat Chrysler will move Ram production to Michigan from Mexico

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post #56 of 67 Old January 13th, 2018, 04:40 PM
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.60d24a5a19d9

Trump lie? Never......

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post #57 of 67 Old November 27th, 2018, 01:11 AM
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Anyone want to revisit this famed deal nearly two years later?

Thought it may be a great time to look at how Trump has saved manufacturing jobs in the midst of GM delivering another gut punch to these workers.

---------- Post added at 01:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:02 AM ----------

I'm interested to see how this story is spun by conservatives.

In my ultra liberal perspective of the world, this seems like a no win. There are two ways to read this, neither of which would be preferential to the bullshit Trump and conservatives have been peddling.

1) The economy is headed in the wrong direction.

OR

2) Big ole' tax cuts and regulation slashing did nothing to stop major companies from slashing costs in the name of profit and at the expense of the middle class, who got fucked in the tax deal in the first place (yeah, I'll go there too).

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post #58 of 67 Old November 27th, 2018, 10:33 AM
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^ maga :/

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post #59 of 67 Old November 27th, 2018, 03:00 PM
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Anyone want to revisit this famed deal nearly two years later?

Thought it may be a great time to look at how Trump has saved manufacturing jobs in the midst of GM delivering another gut punch to these workers.

---------- Post added at 01:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:02 AM ----------

I'm interested to see how this story is spun by conservatives.

In my ultra liberal perspective of the world, this seems like a no win. There are two ways to read this, neither of which would be preferential to the bullshit Trump and conservatives have been peddling.

1) The economy is headed in the wrong direction.

OR

2) Big ole' tax cuts and regulation slashing did nothing to stop major companies from slashing costs in the name of profit and at the expense of the middle class, who got fucked in the tax deal in the first place (yeah, I'll go there too).
If a private company wants to be greedy and decides to cut US jobs while keeping the low wage overseas workers how is Trump supposed to stop them? Giving them tax cuts and incentives will only help to deter this, not prevent it. Why isn’t the liberal media going after these greedy, white-collar executives who are only doing this to pad their pockets with millions? Same for the Sears executives, they are talking about a 25 million bonus before they close up shop. Nothing for the American worker about to lose their job.
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post #60 of 67 Old November 27th, 2018, 03:24 PM Thread Starter
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Did you actually read the 2016 article? The big lie the union official was talking about was Trump saying that over 1100 jobs. There were 350 R&D jobs included never in jeopardy. The union official said that Trump could take credit for saving 800 jobs. He was very unhappy that all jobs could not be saved that that they were loosing 550 production jobs. I have no idea whether it was confusion over the exact number or not. And I don't care. The fact is that somewhere around 800 jobs were saved and those were the reports we were getting at the time here in Indiana.

Trump said he is very unhappy about the GM announcement. Canada is just as unhappy. GM says they are focusing more on technology. This article talks about self-driving electric vehicles. It also says that they want to focus on car that consumers want today which is SUVs and hatchbacks. What ever the reason they are really making the US and Canada unhappy by shifting production of cars to to Mexico and China that they intend to sell here. We are a free society. I really don't know what the two governments intend to do.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/26/busin...ant/index.html

By the way, Ford made the same type of announcement back in April without mentioning shutting down plants. This report talked about new investments.
https://www.npr.org/2018/04/26/60615...rucks-and-suvs

ProCharger P-1SC, 9 psi, STD 396/383; Uncorrected 388/375; SAE 383/370.
Ret. USAF 1969-1973,1980-1996: Vietnam veteran. Aircraft maintenance. R & D, ICBM Operations.
Also own: 1997 Harley FXDWG, 1998 F-150, and 2002 Corvette LS1

Last edited by Eagle2000GT; November 27th, 2018 at 05:15 PM.
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