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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Republicans
To win the nomination candidates must win 1,237 of 2,472 delegates. There are 168 super-delegates (party insiders) but Republican super-delegates are bound by state election results.
https://www.google.com/search?q=How+many+Republican+delegates&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#eob=R/2/full/m.09c7w0/

Delegates won so far: Trump 1,542
Trump has won enough delegates.

Democrats
To win the nomination candidates must win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates. There are no winner take all states. All delegates are assigned proportionally. There are 712 super-delegates (party insiders) who may vote any way they wish. Of the 712 super-delegates 364 pledged to vote for Clinton before the first primary, 8 have pledged to vote for Sanders and 2 have pledged to vote for O'Malley. The number in parenthesis includes super-delegates.
https://www.google.com/search?q=How+many+Democrat+delegates&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#eob=D/2/short/m.09c7w0/

Pledged delegates won so far: Clinton 2,202 and Sanders 1,828.
Neither Clinton nor Sanders have won enough pledged delegates. The nominee will be selected by the super-delegates. Clinton need 180 super-delegates to vote for her. At this time 574 super-delegates are leaning Clinton, 48 are leaning Sanders. This gives Clinton the nomination. Sanders hopes to change their minds before the convention.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #2
It looks like Fiorina is not going to be allowed to go to the next debate even though she received more delegates than Christie, more votes in Iowa than Christie and Kasich, and she polls ahead of Carson in New Hampshire. Pressure is building to include her. I hope they do.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #5
Why do the Democrats get so many more delegates?
Republicans control the Republican primary process. Democrats control the Democratic primary process. It is two separate contests resulting in two independent conventions. They are unrelated to each other.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #6 (Edited)
New Hampshire is over Trump was the big winner getting 10 delegates to Cruz's 2. I think the last debate played a part because it was a good night for Kasich and a bad night for Rubio. Christie's bully tactics didn't help him at all. Sanders was also a big winner getting 13 to Clinton's 9. But Clinton is still far ahead because of committed super-delegates.
https://www.google.com/search?q=New+Hampshire+delegates&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#eob=m.059f4/R/2/short/m.059f4/

Recent news. After earning no delegates Christie has dropped out of the competition.
 

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Not a fan of Chris Christie. Any state that outright bans hollow point ammunition is just plain stupid.

And you're not allowed to pump your own gas there?
 

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Not a fan of Chris Christie. Any state that outright bans hollow point ammunition is just plain stupid.

And you're not allowed to pump your own gas there?
Keep in mind he has a very liberal legislature to deal with. Even if he wanted to change those he can't because the legislature won't. One thing he does for gun rights is to pardon any person charged with carrying a weapon in NJ with another states carry permit. NJ doesn't officially recognize some states carry permits so if you are carrying and get arrested you are in violation of their laws. It's one way Christie can provide gun rights without legislative action.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #9
For the Democrats, Nevada is next. Delegates are awarded in proportion to the votes.

For the Republicans, South Carolina is next. South Carolina is a winner-take-most/winner-take-all state. There are 29 state wide delegates and the state winner gets all of them. The other delegates are divided among the seven districts. The winner in each district takes all of their delegates. Usually if a candidate wins the state he will also win most of the districts.
Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: SOUTH CAROLINA
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #10
Because of his poor performance in South Carolina Bush drops out. It looks as if Trump will win South Carolina and all of its delegates even though 2/3 of the voters voted against him.

Edit: This is why I hate winner take all states. 2/3 of the voters were against Trump and he gets almost all the delegates.
 

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7.62x39 CO2 Cannon
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Because of his poor performance in South Carolina Bush drops out. It looks as if Trump will win South Carolina and all of its delegates even though 2/3 of the voters voted against him.
Good! The /end of the Bush dynasty! :foshizzle:

Now on to eliminating the Clinton dynasty...
 

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2/3 of the voters didn't "vote against" Trump. People voted for the several other candidates they supported. You can also twist it a different way and say that 50% of the voters voted against Rubio and Cruz if you want to add candidates votes together against one person like is being suggested. Trump won fair and square. He alone beat the other two candidates who matter at this point. A lot of this stuff is a joke, flipping coins, using a deck of cards for delagate votes. One thing for certain is you are not stopping the Trump train.
 

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7.62x39 CO2 Cannon
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2/3 of the voters didn't "vote against" Trump. People voted for the several other candidates they supported. You can also twist it a different way and say that 50% of the voters voted against Rubio and Cruz if you want to add candidates votes together against one person like is being suggested. Trump won fair and square. He alone beat the other two candidates who matter at this point. A lot of this stuff is a joke, flipping coins, using a deck of cards for delagate votes. One thing for certain is you are not stopping the Trump train.
Honest question here. Are you a Progressive?
 

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I honestly don't know how to classify myself. I vote independent. I think half the problem with the system we follow is everybody is hung up on one side or the other. I look at things differently, I want to person I feel is best suited to make a difference, Democrat or Republican it doesn't matter to me. How about a mix of both.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #15
2/3 of the voters didn't "vote against" Trump. People voted for the several other candidates they supported.
Yes, its the glass half-full, half-empty discussion. Here is my view. Trump is disliked more than any other candidate by Republican voters. As candidates drop out it is unlikely that their supporters will switch their votes to Trump. For example, I cannot imagine a Bush supporter ever voting for Trump. He has insulted not only Bush and the Bush family but he points to the audience in the debates and insults the supporters as well. Bush supporters in states that have not yet voted will move to just about any other candidate other than Trump.

I believe that will be the same with the supporters for the other candidates as well. Trump may pick up a small percentage of those voters but the majority will go elsewhere.

There are no winner-take-all states on super Tuesday. With the field still fairly full Trump is likely to extend his lead a little. His 33-35% will still beat the 22-30% share of the other two front runners. If things keep going they way they are its likely he'll get around 200 delegates (one-third) while Cruz and Rubio get around 150-180 (depending on where the Bush voters go). If after super Tuesday the field can be narrowed down to two candidates then it is likely that Trump's lead will quickly vanish and he may lose his lead entirely when they get to the winner-take-all states. It is unlikely that Trump will win those with only one opponent running against him. If the field doesn't narrow down then his 33-35% share may carry him through.

Let's look into a very cloudy crystal ball and assume that both Cruz and Rubio stay for the entire race. Trump might then go to the convention with 40% of the delegates. That isn't enough to win the nomination. We would then have a brokered convention. Delegates' votes are bound during the first round but they are free to vote their own preference after that. That is when the back room negotiations take place to get votes. Perhaps the great "deal maker" will prevail or he may fail because he has burnt too many bridges.

The future is uncertain but on thing for sure. Trump has made the Republican primary interesting.
 

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It is still is sad how no matter who wins it really isn't who the people want. Delegates, Super Delegates, coin tosses, decks of cards, it is really foolish and crazy if you ask me. We have country's out there where the people are fighting just for a democratic election. Polls are being blown up etc. in the US the people have the right and ability to vote, yet when they do it may be pointless because we are assigning delegate votes by a coin toss.

I see Trump gaining ground. He has the best managed campaign going. Nothing that he has said about people like the Bush family, the Pope have been wrong in my opinion. I'm sure he could expose much more and his research is accurate before he opens his mouth. Last night is his victory speech he was dead on. Why should trade with China be conducted by "political hacks" with an agenda? It should be done by professional business people with negotiation skills. Why should bureaucrats decide the equipment our military uses? Why should bureaucrats decide how we educate our children? And Mexico will pay for the wall. Did you know early on Trump has received threats from the Mexican Cartels? There is a reason for this. They aren't worried about Obama. Can you honestly see little Rubio or Cruz throwing any weight around. They would be puppets on a string.
 

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #17
It is still is sad how no matter who wins it really isn't who the people want. Delegates, Super Delegates, coin tosses, decks of cards, it is really foolish and crazy if you ask me. We have country's out there where the people are fighting just for a democratic election.
Only the Democratic party has super-delegates that vote on their own. The Republican party has extra state delegates but party rules require them to vote the will of the people.

Only the caucus states use tie breakers such as coin tosses and cards. The primary states do not. Here is the crazy thing about caucus states like Nevada. They pick precinct delegates who go to the county convention to pick county delegates who go to the state convention to pick state delegates.

Primary states can be just as bad though. I don't particularly care for winner-take-all states. The Democratic party doesn't have them but the Republican party lets each state determine its own rules.

The other thing is that political parties are not really part of our government so they can and do make their own rules.
 

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Discussion Starter #18

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US Air Force (retired)
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Discussion Starter #19
Super Tuesday is next. 595 Republican and 1004 Democratic delegates are up for grabs. There are 10 states holding both primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Republicans also have a primary in Alaska. Democrats in America Somoa and Colorado.

All Democrat delegates are proportional. While not winner-take-all states several of the Republican states have minimums of 5-20% in order to earn a delegate. Candidates getting fewer votes than the minimum get nothing. It is fairly certain that Trump, Cruz and Rubio will meet the minimums in all states.

Texas is the prize with 155 Republican and 251 Democratic delegates. For Republicans Georgia is next with 76 and Tennessee third with 58. For Democrats Georgia is next with 117 and Massachusetts is third with 116.

There are some Republican caucus states that caucuses but do not bind delegates until the state conventions.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/how-many-delegates-list-which-states-vote-on-super-tuesday/
 

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missippi roolz
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Super Tuesday is next. 595 Republican and 1004 Democratic delegates are up for grabs. There are 10 states holding both primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Republicans also have a primary in Alaska. Democrats in America Somoa and Colorado.

All Democrat delegates are proportional. While not winner-take-all states several of the Republican states have minimums of 5-20% in order to earn a delegate. Candidates getting fewer votes than the minimum get nothing. It is fairly certain that Trump, Cruz and Rubio will meet the minimums in all states.

Texas is the prize with 155 Republican and 251 Democratic delegates. For Republicans Georgia is next with 76 and Tennessee third with 58. For Democrats Georgia is next with 117 and Massachusetts is third with 116.

There are some Republican caucus states that caucuses but do not bind delegates until the state conventions.

Super Tuesday States & Delegates 2016 | Heavy.com
Too bad I forgot to change my registration when I moved from Dallas to Houston. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to drive up to Dallas to vote in the primary as I'd be happy to vote against Cruz. Luckily, it probably doesn't matter as Texas will likely go to him regardless.
 
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